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Thursday, November 7, 2024
Residential and corporate towers blend together in this view of Canary Wharf, from Westerry Road. Photo by Holly Munks ⓒ Social Streets CIC
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Permanently in progress: the future of Canary Wharf and the Isle of Dogs

Canary Wharf may look like a financial powerhouse, but the reality beneath the surface is much more complex, with both local and corporate interests in crisis. So what is the next chapter for the Isle of Dogs?

No other city in the world has got right at its centre such an opportunity for profit and progress, so it’s important the right people mastermind the new London.’ 

Although these could be the words of a newly elected MP, they were spoken by Harold Shand, the fictional East End mobster immortalised in 1980’s The Long Good Friday. Their eerie resonance has only grown since the film’s release, especially around Canary Wharf. Whether or not ‘the right people’ have arrived to mastermind the Isle of Dogs – that is still up for debate. 

As previous articles in this series have shown, the island has inspired contradictory visions of what ‘the new London’ should be: a prosperous shipping hub, postwar housing project, corporate utopia and finally, residential paradise. 

Right now, empty construction sites punctuate the landscape of docks and housing estates, overshadowed by office towers whose uncertain fates are at odds with their brash exteriors. It’s a place of frozen ambition, and unfortunately, the people without power are usually the ones left out in the cold. Though community spirit is strong south of the financial hub, locals will not have the final say in what becomes of their island. And as for those with power – they aren’t all agreed on the master plan. 

To conclude the series, we’re bringing out the crystal ball. Though we can’t predict the future of Canary Wharf and the Isle of Dogs, we’re summing up the possibilities gleaned from locals, developers, community advocates, councils and corporations. 

Entrance to the Westferry Printworks development site, with old dock infrastructure behind a sign advertising the development.
Entrance to the Westferry Printworks development site. Photo by Holly Munks ⓒ Social Streets CIC

Masterminding the island

The island has struggled to settle on an identity over the past few decades because it has been caught between the public and private sectors. The government has relied on property investors to regenerate the Isle of Dogs, but the different companies and housing associations who own former council land do not share a cohesive master plan. 

When Ruth Burberry, an Isle of Dogs Ward Councillor, addressed a committee on the redevelopment of the Westferry Printworks, she pointed out that planning officers are looking at each project in isolation – to the detriment of the island:

‘Officers have only assessed infrastructure for the site’s own needs and not assessed the cumulative impact of all the development on the wider area.’

The language around each residential project suggests these developments are trying to be everything to everyone, all at once. They are homes people can live in, but they’re also ‘mixed-use communities’ with coworking spaces, upscale gyms and an array of third spaces, from communal lounges to gardens promoting connecting with nature.

Window of the Newfoundland property office in Canary Wharf, with signage reading 'Rent; connect; belong'.
Advertising to renters on the window of the Vertus property offices in Canary Wharf.  Photo by Holly Munks ⓒ Social Streets CIC

Stricter laws around affordable housing have developed since the London Docklands Development Corporation (LDDC) created Canary Wharf in the 1980s, and council housing in Poplar and surrounding areas was sold en masse to the private sector in the early 2000s. Private companies are now required to couch their business goals in terms of bettering the community if they want their development to be approved.

Just as hybrid working has blurred the office with the home, the privatisation of social housing has blurred public sector essentials with private sector luxuries, making it harder for housing – affordable or otherwise – to move forward. New residential plans are the multi-hyphenate hopefuls of the architectural world, desperate to tick as many boxes as possible, in an economic landscape undergoing upheaval. They are trying to recreate the beloved mixed-use neighbourhoods of older parts of the city (Marylebone Village is a reference in some plans) but are starting from scratch. 

The outcome of this, according to former councillor Andrew Wood, could be a hybrid landscape of luxury and neglect with slums, where private developments keep separate entrances for tenants paying affordable rent – also known as poor doors, for which Poplar LDN has already found evidence. 

‘It’s not a slum yet,’ Wood said, ‘but it’s headed that way. Or will it end up like a hotel, with people living here for a few years and then leaving? What will happen to these buildings in 40 or 50 years? Will they last? We just don’t know.’

People on an escalator inside a shopping mall in Canary Wharf, East London. Photo by Holly Munks ⓒ Social Streets CIC
Lunch hour on a Thursday in Cabot Place, one of Canary Wharf’s shopping malls. Photo by Holly Munks ⓒ Social Streets CIC

Private Paradise

Ironically – but not unsurprisingly – the section of the island that is in the best shape is the private town centre of Canary Wharf. Andrew Wood told us why he has more faith in the Canary Wharf Group (CWG) than other developers:

‘We know what we’ll get – the key thing I like about them is that they’re here for the long term – they’re interested in the reputation of the area.’

The CWG might be a private company, but it rose from the ashes of the London Docklands Development Corporation (LDDC) and its identity is wrapped up in what happens to the district. CWG land tends to be extremely clean, well-managed and safe. The underground shopping complex that links Canary Wharf’s tube stations to the world’s most powerful banks is as glossy as any mall or public transport hub could ever hope to be. The company told Poplar LDN:

‘Our unique position as owner, developer and manager of the Canary Wharf estate allows us to curate a 15-minute city.’

But for all its public benches, the estate feels like somewhere you can’t really hang around for very long unless you spend money. Shops (Gucci, Waitrose), restaurants (Roe, Hawksmoor), and one of London’s most expensive gyms (the ironically named Third Space) can only feel so welcoming without a JP Morgan salary to match.

Advertising board for different restaurants and businesses in Wood Wharf, Canary Wharf, East London.
Signs guide pedestrians to Wood Wharf and its crop of high-end chain businesses. Photo by Holly Munks ⓒ Social Streets CIC

The CWG’s developments are separate from what developers like Mount Anvil and housing associations like Riverside are doing on the island. Their expansion plans don’t involve demolition of existing homes. Because the Group does not receive funding from the GLA and they already own 55.07 hectares of the island, rather than having purchased it from the council, their legal affordable housing targets are lower. 

Their first home-building project, Wood Wharf, just east of the Canary Wharf financial district, promises to be a residential, retail and tourism hub. It makes affordable provisions, but the details are unclear: one page on CWG’s website claims Wood Wharf will include over 3,600 new homes, 25 per cent of which will be affordable. 

This figure includes homes let at ‘Tower Hamlets Standard Rents’. The CWG told Poplar LDN: ‘The rent is determined via a “rent nomination agreement” with Tower Hamlets, which they have primary control over setting.’

They were unable to provide further details on this Standard Rent figure, but it is separate from the more common ‘affordable’ rates (around 80 per cent of market rent) that will be charged for some homes in Wood Wharf. 

So far, 176 homes have been built and are rented at ‘affordable rates’ and 143 at ‘Tower Hamlets Standard Rents’. The CWG told us 294 more units were in the pipeline, and that Wood Wharf would deliver 2,370 units across all residential development. To make the total percentage of affordable units add up to 25 per cent, you need to combine units rented at ‘affordable’ and ‘standard’ rates and divide this by a total of 2,370 rather than the 3,600 units quoted on CWG’s website. 

Wood Wharf may also contribute to raising market rent on the entire island – premium pricing usually filters down the housing market and increases the cost of affordable units too. 

View of Hawksmoor restaurant in front of modern apartment blocks in Wood Wharf, Canary Wharf, with water of the dock in the foreground.
Hawksmoor Restaurant is one of the upscale dining options on offer to Wood Wharf’s residents. Photo by Holly Munks ⓒ Social Streets CIC

This is not a gotcha moment. The CWG is doing what businesses do. It is owned by Brookfield, a private equity firm, and the Qatari Investment Authority (QIA), which also has shares in Harrods, and therefore would be looking to see a return on their investment in Canary Wharf in line with luxury retail turnover.

The CWG has business concerns to look after; it is considering selling a stake in its underground shopping complex, as the Group’s portfolio of office space enters rough waters. Barclays and Morgan Stanley have signed leases to stay on the island into the 2030s, but HSBC, Reuters and the law firm Clifford Chance are on their way out. If the HSBC tower is converted into a mixed-use building with outdoor terraces, as this July 2024 plan suggests, the CWG will foot the bill – which could be as high as £800 million

Plus, Wood Wharf has brought a much-needed GP practice to the island and is promising a new school, public park and Idea Store. The fact that it is unlikely to make a real dent in affordable housing provisions simply underscores why inclusive regeneration requires government money. Complicating matters further is the fact that the CWG’s gross debt as of June 2024 stood at £4.3. Last month, the company’s credit rating dropped further into ‘junk’ status.

Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremey Hunt handed over a £118 loan to the CWG in March 2024. A Treasury statement claimed: ‘This will deliver a life sciences hub, commercial and retail floor space, a healthcare diagnostic facility and up to 750 homes.’ So far it is unclear how much of the loan has been used and where the funds have been allocated.

Display cars inside the BYD shop in Cabot Place, a shopping mall in Canary Wharf, East London.
BYD is one of the luxury car retailers with showrooms in Canary Wharf. Photo by Holly Munks ⓒ Social Streets CIC

Disparity of visions

In other parts of London – Shoreditch, Bethnal Green, Whitechapel – gentrification is well underway. Investors have confidence that people will flock to cobbled streets, fashionable bars, up-and-coming restaurants, historical landmarks and bus routes direct to Zone 1. Already densely populated, it’s not hard to believe there is ‘no room left at the inn’.

But in the Docklands, some land remains undeveloped. Unfortunately for developers, the area has yet to become as trendy as the rest of Tower Hamlets. And here, away from the noise of the city, poverty is more visible. It is harder to justify new towers which will not house the people on the street outside. The council insists on affordable housing, the developers insist on a return on their investment and the sums don’t add up. Everything freezes; projects stall and people stay out in the cold.

Neon signs for shops on a road in Poplar, East London, at dusk.
Small businesses are still thriving in Poplar, north of the island, which has a longer history as a mixed-use neighbourhood. Photo by Holly Munks ⓒ Social Streets CIC

Clashing interests are why projects like Ballymore’s new tower on Cuba Street are going nowhere fast. Citing increased building costs, Ballymore resubmitted their development proposal in April 2024, with fewer affordable homes – 58 out of 434 flats. Ballymore explained this was ‘a minor material amendment planning application […] to make alterations to the consented scheme.’ 

But there’s a glitch in the matrix on Cuba Street; it’s where the sky-high glass city of Canary Wharf fades into the 1970s mid-rise housing estates of the Isle of Dogs. It’s where you start feeling like you are back in Tower Hamlets, after a brief sojourn in the steel mirage of the financial district. You sense the borough’s inequality more sharply here, where it is so visible. To allow another tower with fewer homes for the people who need them stings more here than it does in the middle of Canary Wharf. 

If new schemes reduce their affordable housing offer, it will be with the government’s approval, because the developers will have successfully made their case that they cannot afford to deliver the number of affordable units promised. The alternative, they will say, is no housing at all. 

'No loitering' sign outside a building site in Canary Wharf, East London, at dusk.
‘No loitering’ sign outside a building site on Mastmaker Road, Canary Wharf. Photo by Holly Munks ⓒ Social Streets CIC

The building sites and half-empty office towers have left little room for free public spaces. The island’s single public library is laughably small – especially once you’ve traipsed through a cavernous shopping complex to find it. The situation is fuelling youth disenchantment, according to resident Shane Parmar.

‘The basketball half-court was recently moved from outside Padel. There’s less and less free activities for children which helps to keep them out of trouble,’ Parmar told Poplar LDN.

‘What kind of message does that send to the world? The finance hub of Europe would rather put another Padel court (costing £80 per hour) in place of what I understand was a temporary installation by an artist but was constantly occupied by kids of all ages, with many even travelling from neighbouring areas to enjoy it.’

He continued: ‘It would be great to see if there’s something we can do that keeps kids out of trouble that’s permanent and free.’ 

Padium padel court behind glass walls in Canary Wharf, East London.
Padium’s padel courts in the centre of Canary Wharf. Sessions start from £80 per hour. Photo by Holly Munks ⓒ Social Streets CIC

Silver linings

The Council’s decision to defer a final ruling on the redevelopment of 4 & 5 Harbour Exchange Square – just next door to Ballymore’s Cuba Street site – can signal hope to local families.

The Strategic Development Committee is requesting more family-sized units within the affordable housing provision. Though frustrating for the developers, who had already revised the scheme in the hopes of gaining permission, the decision was rooted in the fact that a development which would disrupt the local community and road networks as much as this one should balance that harm against a real positive impact on local people who need homes. As committee members highlighted, overcrowding in family dwellings is one of the borough’s most significant housing issues. 

Regeneration of existing estates also offers qualified hope to residents who are frustrated by the lack of service provision and poor management of public spaces, which may account for why people have generally voted in favour of redevelopment.

At the very least, more retail and commerce in Canary Wharf means more entry-level jobs for young people on the island. Even if few local families will see their budgets stretch to renting in Wood Wharf, the neighbourhood could boost job availability during and after its construction. 

Street lamps at dusk, in front of a restaurant on the promenade of Canary Wharf, with the River Thames in the background. Photo by Holly Munks ⓒ Social Streets CIC
Saturday night in Canary Wharf – the outdoor seating area of this riverside restaurant is empty. Photo by Holly Munks ⓒ Social Streets CIC

The CWG is also redeveloping North Quay, an awkward section of land between Canary Wharf and the highway which currently looks like an excavation pit. Once completed, the work is meant to improve pedestrian and cycle access to the area, something that anyone who has had to move between Canary Wharf underground and the West India Quay or Poplar DLR stations will appreciate. It also promises 0.8 hectares of ‘publicly accessible open space’ and a building in collaboration with Kadans Science Partner, a company that develops and manages laboratory space across Europe. 

As for the newcomers? Will they want to stay? So far, it seems not – once they have families, they’d rather go somewhere they can get more for their money. As for those who continue to be working professionals in the area? Maybe they will stay and form some connections with the local community, or what is left of it at that point. Or maybe the ongoing lack of public investment and stalled projects will continue to impact people’s feelings about the area and they won’t want to stay. 

In conclusion, this series has shown that the future of Canary Wharf and the Isle of Dogs remains a complex interplay of power, profit, and community. As the area continues to develop, its contrasting visions—luxury living and affordable housing, corporate dominance and local needs—paint an uncertain picture. While private investments are shaping much of the landscape, it is evident that public interest is often left behind. The island’s future will likely hinge on finding a balance between corporate expansion and genuine inclusivity. Whether that balance is ever struck remains to be seen, but it is clear that the stakes are high for both residents and developers alike.

View of skyscrapers on the Canary Wharf skyline at night, with the Westferry Printworks building site in the foreground.
The Canary Wharf skyline from the Westferry Printworks development site. Photo by Holly Munks ⓒ Social Streets CIC

Read the series from the start:

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